MBA Financial ServicesOliver's Insights

Oliver's Insights

A defining feature of the economic cycle we are now going through is the constrained and fragile nature of economic growth globally. After an initial bounce post the GFC to 5.4% in 2010, global economic growth has consistently disappointed. This can be seen in the progression of the IMF’s economic growth forecasts for each year...
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A pick-up in the housing sector was a necessary part of the adjustment in the Australian economy following the end of the mining boom. The RBA started cutting interest rates in 2011, home buyers returned, home prices rose and this has all encouraged a dwelling construction boom that has helped offset the mining investment slump....
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Back in April this year when shares were riding high, it seemed the worry list investors had was relatively short and mild. Since those highs the worry list expanded dramatically. Reflecting this major share markets saw falls to their recent lows, viz US shares -12%, Australian shares -18%, Eurozone and Japanese shares -19%, emerging market...
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Due to an obsession with Taylor Swift and then The Carpenters I decided I needed to have a Carpenters’ CD with the full Burt Bacharach medley they performed in the early 1970s. So I went to Amazon and found that it was only on a Japanese Carpenters’ Anthology CD which would set me back $US150...
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Introduction Uncertainties regarding the emerging world and specifically China and the US Federal Reserve’s much talked about first interest rate hike have continued to result in volatile share markets over the last few weeks even though most have not made new lows for this downturn. From their highs earlier this year to their recent lows,...
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Introduction Whenever there are sharp falls in share markets like recently, there is a temptation to wonder whether we are seeing a re-run of the last major crisis. Fortunately, the conditions today are very different to the run-up to the global financial crisis (GFC) which originated in the developed world, notably the US. The developed...
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Introduction The Australian economy remains in a difficult period as the mining boom unwinds. Non-mining activity has bounced back but is far from strong enough to offset the headwinds coming from the mining downturn. This note looks at the outlook for growth, interest rates, profits and what it means for investors. Growth remains poor June...
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Introduction The turmoil in global investment markets has continued into this week, although the last few days have seen a bit of stabilisation and improvement in several markets. From their highs to their recent lows major share markets have now had the following falls: Chinese shares -43%, Asian shares (ex Japan) -23%, emerging markets -22%,...
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Introduction I have discovered after nearly 10 years that Taylor Swift is actually pretty good. Songs like Style and Shake it Off are right up there when it comes to great head candy. Not quite as good as say The Beach Boys of course but still up there. In my Holden, the next CD I...
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Introduction Through the secular bull market in shares that went from 1982 through to 2000 (or up to 2007 in Australia) most asset classes did well and so getting the asset mix right – ie the relative exposure to each of the major asset classes like shares, bonds and cash – was seen as less...
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