Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
And what does it mean for investors? Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital The RBA has hiked the cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 0.35% and signalling more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5% by year-end and to 2% by mid...Read More
The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors
April 20, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. Labor is not offering a significantly different economic policy agenda than the...Read More
Australian housing slowdown Q&A
April 12, 2022
What impact will higher interest rates have? How far will prices fall? Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Australian home prices are likely to fall by 10% to 15% into 2024 primarily as a result of poor affordability and rising interest rates. The negative wealth effect from falling...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Successful investing can be very difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, war in Ukraine & continuing covid waves. This makes it all the more important to stay focused on the basic principles of successful investing....Read More
The 2022-23 Australian Budget
March 30, 2022
– a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Diana Mousina - Senior Economist, AMP Capital A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits, with the 2022-23 budget deficit expected to be $80bn (down from $99bn...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Oil prices have spiked on the anticipation and now reality of restrictions on Russian oil supply from the war in Ukraine. This is driving a sharp rise in petrol prices which will hit household spending power. Fortunately, there is an...Read More
– and why are Australian shares holding up better? Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO...Read More
The escalation in Ukraine tensions – implications for investors
February 23, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Ukraine tensions have escalated with Russia ordering troops into Ukraine regions already occupied by Russian separatists. Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe. The history of...Read More
Investment outlook Q&A
February 15, 2022
– inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to...Read More
Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares
February 10, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Shares have had a good rebound but could still fall further in the short term as risks remain high around monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. However, a deep bear market is unlikely as US, global and Australian recessions are unlikely...Read More