Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful & short term. Five ways to help manage the noise and stay focussed as investors...Read More
2020-21 saw investment returns rebound
July 7, 2021
- expect more modest but still good returns this financial year Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound after the coronavirus hit depressed 2019-20 returns. Key lessons for investors from 2020-21 were to: allow that share markets look ahead; timing markets is...Read More
The never-ending coronavirus pandemic
June 29, 2021
- why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Snap lockdowns in Sydney, Perth and Queensland are likely to cost the economy $2.5bn, but like previous snap lockdowns are unlikely to derail the recovery. Australia has...Read More
- five reasons not to be too concerned Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate...Read More
Inflation – why it matters for investment markets
June 10, 2021
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation...Read More
- here are seven reasons for optimism Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points With growth of 1.8% in the March quarter, Australian GDP is now back above its pre pandemic level. While uncertainties remain – including around the latest coronavirus outbreak in Victoria – there are...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The Government now expects the Federal budget deficit to peak at $161bn this financial year (down from $214bn in October’s Budget) and fall to $107bn in 2021-22. The windfall to the budget from stronger growth is being spent on extra...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Geopolitical issues generate much interest but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets But geopolitical risks are higher than prior to the GFC reflecting three big themes: a populist backlash against economic rationalist policies; the falling relative power of...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Australian home prices are currently in a cyclical upswing which likely has further to go into 2022. However, the longer-term bull market, that has seen above trend growth in property prices since the mid-1990s, may be close to an end...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist takes a look at the outlook for official interest rates in Australia following the RBA’s latest monthly board meeting. The key points are as follows: The RBA left the cash rate at 0.1% at its April meeting. While the economy is recovering faster than expected...Read More