Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
RBA on hold again As widely expected, the RBA left interest rates on hold again for the fifth month in a row. It still sees its massive March monetary easing package as working as it expected and signalled more bond buying to keep 3-year bond yields at its 0.25% target but this is just a...Read More
The price of gold has now broken out to a record high and the Australian dollar has risen 30% from its coronavirus panic low in March and broken above $US0.70. What’s driving this and what does it mean for investors? This note looks at the main issues. The US dollar looks to have peaked The...Read More
This economic and fiscal update is the first since December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook when budget surpluses looked just around the corner. Since then things have changed dramatically due to the hit from coronavirus and necessary support measures from the Government. Policy stimulus The statement provided no new policy stimulus measures beyond those that...Read More
The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope. Particularly with...Read More
Introduction The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the...Read More
Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets. However, markets may soon start to pay more attention as the election is rapidly approaching, while Joe...Read More
The past week has seen a flurry of concerns about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases. It started when US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci warned the coronavirus outbreak is not over and media started to focus on more than 20 US states seeing a rising trend in new cases, and then over the weekend,...Read More
After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23 March on fears regarding of global recession on the back of the coronavirus shutdowns, share markets have since rebounded sharply, led by US shares. The rally has pushed the Australian ASX 200 back through 6000 for the first time since...Read More
Back on 19th March when we first looked at the impact of the intensifying shutdown of the Australian economy on the housing market (see here) we concluded that the impact would depend on how high unemployment rose. Our base case was a recession that saw unemployment rise to around 7.5% and would push average home...Read More
There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc. However, the magnitude of the shock means it will have medium to longer-term implications as well. Of course, there is a danger in placing too much weight on current circumstances...Read More