Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Three reasons why low inflation is good for shares and property
February 19, 2020
Share markets are at or around record levels despite lots of worries, particularly around the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak. A common concern is that this is because central banks (like the Fed and the RBA) are distorting market forces and just want higher asset prices. And flowing from this its argued that prices for assets like...Read More
Our high-level investment view for this year is that a combination of improving global growth boosting profits and still easy monetary conditions will help drive reasonable investment returns, albeit more modest than the very strong gains of 2019. This note revisits five charts we see as critical to the outlook. Chart #1 – Global business...Read More
Bushfires and the Australian economy
January 10, 2020
Introduction The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of...Read More
After the poor returns for investors in 2018, 2019 turned out surprisingly well with average balanced growth superannuation funds looking like they have returned around 15%. Source: Mercer Investment Consulting, Morningstar, AMP Capital But can it continue this year? Particularly with an intensification of the US/Iran conflict adding to global uncertainty and the drought and...Read More
Five reasons why the $A may be close to the bottom
November 25, 2019
For a long time, we have been bearish on the Australian dollar, seeing a fall into the high $US0.60s and revising this to around $US0.65 in May. In early October it fell to a low of $US0.6671. While negatives remain significant for the $A there is good reason to believe that we are close to...Read More
Introduction After sharp share market falls when headlines scream about the billions wiped off the market the usual questions are: what caused the fall? what’s the outlook? and what does it mean for superannuation? The correct answer to the latter should be something like “nothing really, as super is a long-term investment and share market...Read More
Five reasons why I am not so fussed about the global outlook
November 7, 2019
Bad meme There is always someone telling us that there is some sort of economic/financial disaster coming our way. However, there does seem to be a higher level of hand wringing now about the global economic outlook than normal. These concerns basically go something like this: Global debt – both public and private – is...Read More
More 21 great investment quotes
October 24, 2019
The world of investing can be confusing and scary at times. But fortunately, the basics of investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is insightful and easy to understand. In recent years I’ve written several insights highlighting investment quotes I find...Read More
Five great charts on investing for income (or cash flow)
October 15, 2019
Since I first looked at “Five great charts on investing for income” two years ago, the Australian cash rate has halved, 10-year bond yields have fallen by two thirds and interest rates have resumed falling globally. Ever lower interest rates and periodic turmoil in investment markets provides an ongoing reminder of the importance of the...Read More
Has Australia really had three recessions in the last 28 years?
September 30, 2019
The claim that Australia has gone 28 years without a recession since the early 1990s recession ended in 1991 has been subject to some criticism in recent times with the economy sliding into a “per capita recession” where economic growth has been below population growth. Some have latched on to a recent Federal Reserve Bank...Read More