Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Introduction Since the European Union parliamentary election results were released just over a week ago, seeing a rise in support for far-right parties and French President Macron’s surprise decision to call parliamentary elections, Eurozone shares have had a fall of 4.2%, French shares fell 6.2% and the gap between the French and German 10 year...Read More
Australian home prices were up again in May
June 5, 2024
- but the tension between high rates and the chronic housing shortage remains Introduction National average home prices rose another 0.8% in May, pushing them further into record territory. However, the gains remain highly diverse. Conditions in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide continue to be very strong, helped by relatively lower levels of supply evident in...Read More
Introduction It’s nearly four years since the tumultuous 2020 US presidential election and now the next one is almost upon us. So far investment markets have paid little attention to it or have just focussed on the upside (lower taxes and less regulation) if Trump returns. But that may change as it draws near –...Read More
Introduction It’s now two years since the RBA first started to raise interest rates resulting in the biggest tightening cycle since the late 1980s. Rates have gone much higher and stayed high for much longer than I thought would be the case as Australian households proved more resilient than expected thanks to a combination of...Read More
The 2024-25 Budget
May 15, 2024
Another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia” Introduction The Budget is aimed at trying to lower inflation in the near term but supporting Government priorities including formally launching a “Future Made in Australia” (FMIA) over the medium term. In terms of the former, there...Read More
Introduction Coming out of the roughly 10% correction into October last year, share markets saw strong gains on hopes that lower inflation will allow central banks to cut interest rates and as global profits have remained strong. The going seems to have become tougher though with share markets falling in April amidst interest rate and...Read More
Introduction On a recent road trip, I was listening to a bunch of Taylor Swift and Andy Williams’ CDs and what struck me was how different the topics of the songs were. Andy’s covers were far more upbeat (with songs like ‘Happy Heart’ and ‘For All We Know’) whereas Taylor has lots of ‘somebody done...Read More
Israel/Iran fears and rate cut uncertainty
April 16, 2024
- shares are vulnerable to a bout of volatility but here’s five reasons why the trend will likely remain up Introduction From their lows last October, it has been relatively smooth sailing for shares – with US shares up 28%, global shares up 25% & Australian shares up 17% to recent highs. But the last...Read More
Seven lasting impacts from the COVID pandemic
March 26, 2024
Introduction It’s four years since the COVID lockdowns started. The pandemic ended when it morphed into the less deadly Omicron variant in late 2021, but just as a sound can reverberate around a room the effects of the pandemic continue to reverberate in economies. Putting aside the long-term health impacts this note looks at 7...Read More
Bitcoin to infinity and beyond… again!
March 13, 2024
Introduction After another 80% or so plunge from its high in 2021 to its low in 2022, Bitcoin has rebounded again to a new record high. The next chart shows Bitcoin’s price relative to the $US since 2010, both on a regular scale and on a log scale to show perspective. From its 2022 low...Read More