Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
2016 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
January 21, 2016
Introduction 2015 saw subdued returns for diversified investors as the global economy continued to grow and monetary conditions remained easy, but worries about deflation, plunging commodity prices, fears of an emerging market crisis led by China and uncertainty around the Fed’s first interest rate hike after seven years with near zero interest rates along with...Read More
Introduction 2016 has started much where 2015 left off with basically the same worries driving another bout of share market falls. Geopolitical concerns have played a role but the main issues are uncertainty regarding the Chinese economy, wariness about the Fed raising interest rates and the impact of a rising US dollar and falling Chinese...Read More
Introduction In the most anticipated and hotly debated interest rate decision ever the US Federal Reserve has opted to raise its Federal Funds target interest rate from a range of 0-0.25%, where it’s been for the last seven years, to the range of 0.25-0.5%. Source: Bloomberg, AMP Capital The move is hardly a surprise. The...Read More
Review of 2015, outlook for 2016 – more of the same
December 3, 2015
2015 – a constrained year for investors 2015 has seen another long worry list for investors. Some of these – such as terrorist attacks in Paris, the escalating war in Syria, refugee problems in Europe, Greece’s latest tantrum and tensions in the South China Sea – have not had a lasting impact on investment markets....Read More
Five reasons not to be too worried about the Fed
November 19, 2015
Introduction For much of this year the big debate (or obsession) for investors has been about when the Fed would start to raise interest rates after nearly seven years of being near zero. After delays in June and September attention is now focussed on the December 15-16 Fed meeting following the Fed’s indication at its...Read More
The perils for investors of too much information in the app age
November 13, 2015
Introduction A decade or so ago a large Australian fund manager ran a campaign urging Australians’ to pay more attention to their superannuation (pension) savings. This initially struck me as good advice – after the family home for most of us it will end up being our biggest pot of savings so it makes sense...Read More
Since the end of the GFC in 2009, returns from unlisted commercial property have been strong and steady at around 9.5-10% pa. This initially reflected a recovery from the GFC related slump but more significantly a desire for decent income bearing investments from investors that has pushed down investment yields. Falling yields has been a...Read More
A defining feature of the economic cycle we are now going through is the constrained and fragile nature of economic growth globally. After an initial bounce post the GFC to 5.4% in 2010, global economic growth has consistently disappointed. This can be seen in the progression of the IMF’s economic growth forecasts for each year...Read More
The Australian housing market starting to cool (in parts)
October 14, 2015
A pick-up in the housing sector was a necessary part of the adjustment in the Australian economy following the end of the mining boom. The RBA started cutting interest rates in 2011, home buyers returned, home prices rose and this has all encouraged a dwelling construction boom that has helped offset the mining investment slump....Read More
Back in April this year when shares were riding high, it seemed the worry list investors had was relatively short and mild. Since those highs the worry list expanded dramatically. Reflecting this major share markets saw falls to their recent lows, viz US shares -12%, Australian shares -18%, Eurozone and Japanese shares -19%, emerging market...Read More