Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Nine rules for investors to keep in mind
September 22, 2015
Due to an obsession with Taylor Swift and then The Carpenters I decided I needed to have a Carpenters’ CD with the full Burt Bacharach medley they performed in the early 1970s. So I went to Amazon and found that it was only on a Japanese Carpenters’ Anthology CD which would set me back $US150...Read More
Putting recent share market falls in context
September 17, 2015
Introduction Uncertainties regarding the emerging world and specifically China and the US Federal Reserve’s much talked about first interest rate hike have continued to result in volatile share markets over the last few weeks even though most have not made new lows for this downturn. From their highs earlier this year to their recent lows,...Read More
How serious is the threat from the emerging world?
September 11, 2015
Introduction Whenever there are sharp falls in share markets like recently, there is a temptation to wonder whether we are seeing a re-run of the last major crisis. Fortunately, the conditions today are very different to the run-up to the global financial crisis (GFC) which originated in the developed world, notably the US. The developed...Read More
Introduction The Australian economy remains in a difficult period as the mining boom unwinds. Non-mining activity has bounced back but is far from strong enough to offset the headwinds coming from the mining downturn. This note looks at the outlook for growth, interest rates, profits and what it means for investors. Growth remains poor June...Read More
Shares and global growth worries
August 27, 2015
Introduction The turmoil in global investment markets has continued into this week, although the last few days have seen a bit of stabilisation and improvement in several markets. From their highs to their recent lows major share markets have now had the following falls: Chinese shares -43%, Asian shares (ex Japan) -23%, emerging markets -22%,...Read More
The correction in share markets
August 20, 2015
Introduction I have discovered after nearly 10 years that Taylor Swift is actually pretty good. Songs like Style and Shake it Off are right up there when it comes to great head candy. Not quite as good as say The Beach Boys of course but still up there. In my Holden, the next CD I...Read More
Introduction Through the secular bull market in shares that went from 1982 through to 2000 (or up to 2007 in Australia) most asset classes did well and so getting the asset mix right – ie the relative exposure to each of the major asset classes like shares, bonds and cash – was seen as less...Read More
Introduction As widely expected the RBA left interest rates on hold at their August Board meeting. While it appears to retain an easing bias with its assessment that growth is “below longer-term averages” and that the economy is likely to have “a degree of spare capacity for some time yet”, it appeared to soften this...Read More
Since its 2011 high, the Australian dollar has fallen 34% in value against the US dollar. For some time our view has been that it will fall to $US0.70 by year end with probably an overshoot into the $US0.60s. However, as we all know forecasting precise currency levels is a mug’s game. The key is...Read More
Introduction Despite the usual turmoil along the way and ending on a weak note with Greek and Chinese-related turmoil, 2014-15 provided another year of solid returns for investors who were prepared to move beyond cash. Most asset classes had reasonable returns resulting in average superannuation funds returning 9.9%, their third financial year in a row...Read More