Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital The slump in home prices continues After surging by 28.6% from their pandemic lows early this year to record highs on the back of record low interest rates, home prices are continuing to plunge on the back of the fastest surge in...Read More
Five medium term inflation pressures & implications for investors
November 28, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction It’s often said you don’t realise how good something is until it’s gone. This may apply to the low inflation environment that prevailed up to the pandemic. Apart from a few nasty interruptions this saw a downtrend in interest rates, mostly...Read More
Seven reasons why Australia should be able to avoid a recession
November 8, 2022
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Economic and financial commentary has been particularly gloomy of late, with talk of a “dire”, “grim”, “bleak”, “perilous” and “confronting” outlook. The problems are well known: high inflation; particularly high and still rising energy prices; central banks aggressively raising interest rates;...Read More
The October 2022-23 Australian Budget
October 26, 2022
– balancing a revenue windfall, election promises, structural spending demands & inflation pressures Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Diana Mousina - Senior Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The Government has implemented its election policies and expects lower budget deficits this year and next thanks to another revenue windfall...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Successful investing can be really hard in times like the present. Falls in share markets and other assets are stressful as no one likes to see their wealth decline and the natural inclination is to retreat to safety. From their highs...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The latest client note by Howard Marks, the co-founder and co-chair of Oaktree Capital, an alternative investment manager focussing on distressed debt, on The Illusion of Knowledge about the futility of forecasting to drive investment decisions, inspired me to revisit what...Read More
The RBA hikes rates by 0.25%
October 5, 2022
Here are five reasons why the RBA was right to slowdown and the top is near Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The RBA has increased its cash rate again but slowed the pace to +0.25% which took the cash rate to 2.6%. This was in line...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Investors could be forgiven for looking back on the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021 with fond memories – because after the initial shock in February-March 2020 it was a period of strong returns and relative calm in investment markets. This...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Like a circle in a spiral, like a wheel within a wheel, Never ending or beginning, on an ever spinning wheel. As the images unwind, like the circles that you find, In the windmills of your mind. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJAVP7jP0bI Introduction Cycles are part...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction As widely expected, the RBA has increased the cash rate again by 0.5% taking it to 1.85%. This is more than double the 0.75% rate that applied before the pandemic started. The 175 basis points in rate hikes since April is...Read More