Oliver's Insights
Oliver's Insights
The good news in the plunge in markets
July 26, 2022
- higher medium term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction The start of this year has been painful for investors with sharp losses in shares and bonds, dragging most superannuation funds into negative returns for the last financial year. And yet...Read More
Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction I grew up in the 1970s and it was fun – Abba, Elvis, Wings, JPY, flares, cool cars, etc. But economically it was a mess. Inflation surged and so did unemployment....Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs...Read More
...it’s not as bad as it looks, but it’s still an issue Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction If Australia has an Achilles’ heel it’s the high level of household debt that has accompanied surging home prices over the last 30 years. Of course, in the absence...Read More
The plunge in shares & flow on to super
June 20, 2022
– key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Introduction Usually share markets are relatively calm and so don’t generate a lot of attention. But periodically they tumble and generate headlines like “billions wiped off share market”...Read More
The RBA hikes rates again with more to go
June 8, 2022
– but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate again - by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to...Read More
– expect a 10-15% top to bottom fall Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Australian home prices fell 0.1% in May, their first decline since the pandemic. The main drivers behind the downturn are: poor affordability with prices up nearly 29% over 21 months; rising mortgage...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points The absence of significant macro policy differences between the new Labor Government and the Coalition suggests minimal impact on the share market & the $A. There could be some short-term uncertainty if Labor has to rely on minority parties or...Read More
The falls in share markets this year
May 18, 2022
-The bad news and some good Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates and bond yields, the war in Ukraine and Chinese Covid lockdowns. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. However, it’s not...Read More
Dr Shane Oliver - Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Successful investing can be really difficult in times of uncertainty like now making it important to stay focussed on the basic principles of investing. Here are another five great charts to help illuminate those basic principles: the importance of time in the...Read More